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1990 1984 1998
1995 1990
1993 1997 1997 1999 Livasari&Co. 1999 2004 2004
4
1997
2005 2005 2001 2005 2005
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FCCA HKCPA CFA 1984 10
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17
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29
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18
A
0 50 20% 70 5% 80%
19
MVPS MVPS
M Macro Environment
V Valuation
P Policy
S Sentiment
M Macro Environment
GDP
CPI
M2
V- Valuation
P/B P/E
P/B P/E P/B P/E
20
P- Policy
S- Sentiment
MVPS
21
1
a.
b.
c.
22
5 15 10 20 A200 50
122,146,973.17 45.69%
72,129,126.90 26.98%
70,923,381.41 26.53%
23
0.00 0.00%
2,145,977.24 0.80%
267,345,458.72 100.00%
A
0.00 0.00%
B
13,179,773.00 4.99%
C
44,526,911.80 16.87%
C0
5,820,076.50 2.20%
C1
0.00 0.00%
C2
0.00 0.00%
C3
2,505,800.00 0.95%
C4
3,920,000.00 1.48%
C5
2,067,200.00 0.78%
C6
9,515,618.90 3.60%
C7
20,698,216.40 7.84%
C8
0.00 0.00%
C99
0.00 0.00%
D
9,476,273.85 3.59%
E
0.00 0.00%
F
3,818,462.40 1.45%
G
3,932,690.00 1.49%
H
9,182,114.72 3.48%
I
20,281,874.00 7.68%
J
14,424,873.40 5.46%
K
3,324,000.00 1.26%
L
0.00 0.00%
M
0.00 0.00%
122,146,973.17 46.27%
600030 95,400 9,226,134.00 3.50%
000625 359,920 8,386,136.00 3.18%
600325 126,000 6,874,560.00 2.60%
600396 319,630 6,555,611.30 2.48%
600036 153,000 5,855,310.00 2.22%
24
000937 170,000 5,346,500.00 2.03%
600547 24,000 4,639,200.00 1.76%
000063 71,000 3,932,690.00 1.49%
600299 70,000 3,920,000.00 1.49%
600150 14,000 3,835,860.00 1.45%
38,842,460.00 14.71% 1,921,000.00 0.73% 31,365,666.90 11.88% 72,129,126.90 27.32% 07 04 12,036,000.00 4.56% 20 7,959,824.40 3.02% 7,545,750.00 2.86% 06 46 7,533,750.00 2.85% 06 68 7,231,700.00 2.74% 601,282.05 343,082.83 850,768.64 350,843.72
25
110232 3,855,144.00 1.46% 128031 7,533,750.00 2.85%
- -
2005.4.5 2005.12.31
4.00% 0.47% 1.65% 0.25% 2.35% 0.22%
2006.1.1 2006.12.31
49.40% 0.71% 20.93% 0.32% 28.47% 0.39%
2007.1.1 2007.9.30
67.85 1.22 23.44 0.53 44.41 0.69
2007.9.30
160.79% 0.85% 51.73% 0.38% 109.06% 0.47%
26
27
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
1.4%
H=E×1.4%÷
H
E
,
2
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E
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3 3 7
28
( )
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30